Journey to 2030: The Equalizer Years

The Equalizer years

20 years hence, I will be a healthy 47 years of age and at the helm of 3 stalwart global firms. A career that would have led me through 3 boom and bust cycles, resulting in a tough and sharp businessman at the core. Together with five of my co-CVOs (Chief Vertical Officers), owning over 50% of the firm, we'd be investing 1 day of our 6 day work week in understanding and resolving day to day business issues of each of our concerned firm. Work is tough and challenging, yet extremely fun since I get to delve deeper into each of my 3 firm's issues and improve my Globally indexed specialist ratings every day.

I get a deep sense of satisfaction that while my co-CVOs (I call them 'civo') are still getting used to handling two firms each, I have mastered the art of leading three firms successfully to 5 Star ratings, a skill that puts me in the top 3 percentile in the world among all civos. My week is very organized. I devote Wednesdays for the greatest FMCG firm globally, since I usually get the most work done in the week on Wednesdays. On a parallel note, I've switched to Wednesday to Monday workweeks ever since 2020 when the increasing city traffic on weekdays necessitated that all firms revert to a shift-based working week cycle. Tuesdays are accordingly the off days for me and my FMCG firm. It was initially difficult to let go of the 'Sunday' is Holiday culture, but it was none the less, amazing to see the Indian youth's solidarity when it came to revolting against prevalent traditions, passing off Sundays as yet another artifact of our ill-gotten beliefs. However, with the UniGadget 20.1 it has become a lot easier to schedule 3 hour meet ups between friends and family every now and then, when all our synchronized calendars and locations align.

I love the travel in my work. Since the path breaking research by erstwhile-Google on productivity-location correlation, most of my meetings are held at vastly different yet scenic places such as Niagara Falls, Grand Canyon, or on a Thames river cruise. The research cited that the mind's relaxed state at these states correlated with out-of-the-box and innovative solutions being proposed by attendees. I can personally vouch and say that the Unison concept I came up with for my firm on the bellowing Brahmaputra cruise gave me the break into the top 3% civo group. Membership of this group entitles me to compensation in the top 0.1 percentile globally, since there is a huge demand supply gap for top CVOs.

What really amazes me is the pace with which globalization has brought about the rapid dismissal of the luck factor in executive compensation. I often reminisce about my initial years as a BLT at Unilever, primarily because of the reminiscence bump (I am told so by Unigadget), an inherent bias in episodic memory for early adulthood. Back then, I would often get bouts of self-doubt when I compared the top 0.1 percentile results of my intelligence tests and competitive exam performances with my pay which was barely in the top quartile. To see pay levels increasingly aligning with intelligence and ability levels across the board is a boon of our times. It will ensure continued improvement in chances of mankind’s survivability beyond 2050, as we continue using specialist skills of each able individual towards innovating and steering around the natural resource crunches that we keep encountering every month or so.

Images for Islamic Banking

Exploring "jugaad"

Entrepreneurship or "Jugaad" ... its equivalent word in Hindi is the latest fad and the bug that has bit me ...

currently just trying to list down all possible fields/ideas/sectors that have the potential to be the NBT ...

could be B2B .. ideally ... or could be a technological product that I'd have some clue about ... maybe on the lines of an i-pod or a walkman ...

or could be a major pain point in the health care services sector.

Though, one day I am definitely going to come up with the ultimate business plan and head it !

Making sense of M&A news by BCG - Contd.

Following up on my previous post, another insight is:
The market cap of all companies last year was close to $60 trillion. Compare that with this year's market cap of $40 trillion or around 33% lesser.

Also, in light of the slowdown and cautiousness in corporate environment these days, one can expect the conversion ratio to fall somewhat. Maybe from around 20% to 15%.

Then M&A volume would drop by around 33*1.25 = 42%.

So, the value add by a consultant here is the fact that conversion ratios for M&A transactions would drop from 20% to 15%.

Making sense of M&A news by BCG

Making sense of BCG's M&A news:

M&A volumes are supposed to be falling by upto 46% in this quarter compared to last year levels, according to a recent BCG study. The study also mentions that companies will increasingly carry out stress testing of their own businesses and the acquired businesses during deal-making stages.

Of the companies interviewed and assessed by the study, around 20% of the companies were classified as "predators" and another 20% as "prey" ... while the other 60% could be either predators or preys based on how they deal with the slowdown. That means at a conversion ratio of 10%, around 2% of companies are expected to carry out M&A transactions.
Estimating the worth of all corporate wealth based on the market cap, we have a figure of US $40 trillion.

2% of that comes up to a little under $1 trillion or $800 billion to be precise.

Based on a Reuters article from April last year, the Global M&A volume reached levels of $ 1 trillion in just 107 days, which itself was a decline of 27% from 2007.

http://www.reuters.com/article/privateEquity/idUSN1742497620080417

"It took 107 days for merger volume to hit the $1 trillion mark in 2008, compared with 85 days in 2007 and 93 days in 2006." the article says.

The 46% decline then makes sense with a conversion ratio of around 20%.


That implies a volume of $2 trillion in 2009, which would have taken 220 days in 2008 but will take 220/(1-.46) ~ 400 days ~ 1 yr in 2009 because of 46% decline.

Bottomline: Around 20% of M&A deals between predators and preys goes to conclusion.

Summers of 2008

Recession at WIMWI

Quiz: How does recession come across at WIMWI?
Options: a) Zero spend on hot water b) Folks into general management and marketing c) macro-eco becomes the IN course d) whr's the junta in the fests/meets? e) Heightened participation in case competitions/events

Answer: a) and e) ... err .. actually all of the above !

Explanation: There's no frickin' hot water in WIMWI ... come winter ... and students freeze and cough to their ends ... stopping only for the 4-5 hrs that they sleep ... frickin' namsake solar geysers that are plain inefficient in doing the two things that they ought to do ... capture all the Sun they can get .. and retain the warmness for the night ... good ol' electric geysers ... my frigid lungs ache for thy presence ...
With a fair proportion of facchhas weirdly placed for summers ... the phones keep ringing ... da .. do u wanna enroll for this case thingie in bangie .. or that thing organized by the organization that never sleeps ... or that of some rustic B-school in the land of the Red? ... it's actually hilarious ... how the facchha feedback always is "we're chilling out " ... when we're actually fightin' it out ... faces with fake smiles, though the wrinkled and high foreheads are a total giveaway.